Wind speed modeling based on measurement data to predict future wind speed with modified Rayleigh model

Abstract

The development of modeling wind speed plays a very important in helping to obtain the actual wind speed data for the benefit of the power plant planning in the future. The wind speed in this paper is obtained from a PCE-FWS 20 type measuring instrument with a duration of 30 minutes which is accumulated into monthly data for one year (2019). Despite the many wind speed modeling that has been done by researchers. Modeling wind speeds proposed in this study were obtained from the modified Rayleigh distribution. In this study, the Rayleigh scale factor (C_r) and modified Rayleigh scale factor (C_m) were calculated. The observed wind speed is compared with the predicted wind characteristics. The data fit test used correlation coefficient (R²), root means square error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The results of the proposed modified Rayleigh model provide very good results for users.